Decide · 04 · The book · PDF
The Decision Engine
How to decide well when it matters, and build a way of deciding that learns.
Most of the decisions that shape a life are made by default, by habit, or by whoever speaks loudest. This book shows how to see the real question, weigh it honestly, find out only what could change your mind, avoid the traps that catch everyone, decide well with other people, and learn from every result, so each decision makes the next one better.
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Decide · 04 · One idea, drawn twice
Every chapter draws a decision twice
First as the person framed it, then as it really is. Here's the pair from Chapter 1, The Hidden Decision.
The method
Every chapter draws one decision twice
First as it first appeared: two options, one feeling, a deadline. Then again as it really is: the real question, more options, what matters, what chance controls, and what would change the answer.
The gap between the two drawings is the lesson. Each chapter then shows how insurers, clinicians, engineers, negotiators and poker players handle the same idea, where it misleads, and ends with an experiment to try on a real decision.
- 32chapters, each built around one decision
- 64diagrams in one consistent grammar
- 3interludes: triage, actuaries and checklists
- 31sources, every one checked, with a note on how strong the evidence is
Six parts
Decide · 04.101 – 04.132- Part IWhat a Decision IsChapters 1–5Hidden decisions and defaults, the frame, what matters, more than two options, and when to trust your gut.
- Part IIWeighingChapters 6–11Opportunity cost, the average, the worst case, losses and reference points, trade-offs, and now versus later.
- Part IIIInformationChapters 12–17What's worth knowing, the outside view, decision trees, evidence against, cheap tests, and too many options.
- Part IVTrapsChapters 18–22Sunk costs, anchors, overconfidence, defaults, and deciding while angry, frightened or elated.
- Part VDeciding With OthersChapters 23–27Noise, groups that agree too easily, who decides, negotiating from your alternative, and deciding with someone else.
- Part VILiving With DecisionsChapters 28–32Judging decisions not outcomes, keeping score, commitment, settling into a choice, and building a decision engine.
Inside the PDF
A5 pages · read on screen or print at home
Decide · 04 · The set · PDFs
The book and the field manual
The book explains why decisions go wrong and how to build a way of deciding that learns. The Decision Field Manual gives you the six questions, eleven concepts, a printable Decision Canvas and a Decision Journal to use on this week's decision. Both share one grammar and one set of sheet numbers.
- The Decision EnginePDF · 312 pp
- The Decision Field ManualPDF · 74 pp
PDF only: instant download of both files, no printed copies. Full refund within 14 days, no questions asked.
Start free
The way of thinking in this book grows out of The Polymath Bible, which is free. Get the book and a weekly letter with one idea, one diagram and one exercise.
Who it's for
Anyone facing the few decisions a year that really matter, at work or at home, who wants a clearer way to make them and a way to get better at it. Examples involve money, health and family; they illustrate reasoning and are not professional advice.